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men’s quarter finals
Posted by markleb on August 19, 2008
It seems that Australian TV has shown more volleyball than the four countries feeds I have been watching but here is my two cents.
The men’s quarter finals are set. Because of the ridiculous ‘Bernardinho Rules’, we got to sit through 6 mostly pointless matches to wait for the most important part of the day, the drawing of lots for the quarter finals. USA v Serbia, Bulgaria v Russia, Italy v Poland, China v Brazil.
USA have been the most impressive team until now. They have had the easier group but completely outplayed Italy and won easily against Bulgaria in the two ‘tough’ matches. They will play Serbia who played well in patches but lack a little overall quality, especially with Kovacevic breaking a bone in his hand. In a best of one series, the USA will not relish a match against Grbic and Miljkovic but it is an Olympic quarter final.
Bulgaria will be pleased to be playing Russia. Partly because they know them very well, and partly because they are always a chance to choke. Russia played really in winning their first four matches and just needed to win against Poland to finish first in the group and lost against a team that was just waiting for the drawing of lots. They lost. Bulgaria on the other hand welcomed back their captain and most experienced player (and not doped) Konstantinov.
On form Poland should win easily against Italy. They have played excellent 21st century volleyball (fast, aggressive, precise) throughout the tournament, even matching Brazil for a while at their own game. Italy have had injuries to 3 key players, have alternated liberos and have changed lineups every match. What they have played they looked relatively slow and conservative. Still, Italy is Italy and they have enormous experience in big matches.
Brazil haven’t played at the same level they have shown for the last five years but have improved as the tournament progressed. In the quarter finals I think they would have been vulnerable against a good team. China has done well to reach the quarter finals but I can’t imagine a scenario where they can challenge Brazil. And I have a feeling that other teams will live to regret Brazil having another relatively easy match to continue to improve their rhythm.
So, the semi finals will be (maybe) USA-Russia, Poland-Brazil. Final (possibly) Russia-Brazil. Medals (could be) Brazil, Russia, USA
I don’t know if that’s worth two cents, but if it is Zorzi is worth at least a dollar. And not just because I agree with everything he wrote.
Christian Stapff said
Just a couple of questions?
Why was a drawing of lots required? Is not the format: the first placed team plays the fourth ranked, the second raked plays the third ranked team in the other pool?
Or does FIVB reserve he right to shuffle teams in this drawing of lots?
Most other sports have a clear progression once teams reach Q-finals.
What is the “Bernadinho” rule?
devo said
I don’t know Christian. Even Google has let me down!
I assume (now that always gets me into trouble) that the system rewards the “top” team, punishes the “worse” team. By then balloting the remaining matches you remove any conceived bias of being in a weaker pool, or of a team “laying down” to get a perceived easier match up. (although the latter is is not so significant with percentages being calculated on points won/loss rather than sets won/loss).
“Bernadinho” anyone?
devo said
Ahhhh Devo – Ye of little faith – Sorry Google: http://www.efluxmedia.com/news_Is_Brazilian_domination_of_volleyball_coming_to_an_end_22210.html Could this be what Markleb is refering to? I guess we will have to wait until Markleb wakes up tomorrow to find out.
The Beijing Olympics could see the burial of the phrase attributed to former Italy idol Andrea Zorzi according to which “volleyball is sport with six players on each side in which Brazil always win in the end.”
On Wednesday, in the third round of Group B in the 2008 Olympic men’s volleyball tournament, Russia made it clear – for the second time in just a few weeks – that the Brazilian side of coach Bernardo Rezende, “Bernadinho,” is no longer unbeatable.
In their 3-1 win, Vladimir Alekno’s men showed that efficient blocking tied to good countering can bring down the team that has won almost all of the top titles in volleyball under Bernardinho.
Since this strategist and disciplinarian took over the men’s team in 2001, Brazil has won Olympic gold in Athens 2004, two World Cups, two World Championships and six World League titles, besides the title at the 2007 Pan-American Games.
For some analysts, the problems of volleyball’s Dream Team are not new, and in fact started in July 2007. Then, on the eve of the Pan- American Games in Rio de Janeiro, “Bernardinho” told his compatriots that he had decided to keep his main star, setter Ricardinho, off the national team.
The reasons behind such a drastic move were never quite made clear, but rumour has it that Ricardinho infuriated the coach when he refused to share with his teammates the prize money he won as best player in the 2007 World League.
Despite the storm generated by the talented player’s exclusion, Brazil won gold at the Pan-American Games, with an easy triumph over the United States in the final.
The warning sign that things may not be going as they should came in the finals of this year’s World League held in Rio in late July. The South Americans lost to the United States in the semifinals, and were again defeated by Russia in their effort to win the bronze medal. For the first time in 10 years, Brazil was not on the podium at the World League.
In the face of this surprising development, Andrea Zorzi – now a volleyball commentator for Italian television – revised his famous phrase and excluded Brazil from his list of favourites to claim gold in Beijing.
For Zorzi, the top prize will go to Russia, Poland or Italy.
Yankee Boy said
This year they have done away with the automatic 2v3 and 3v2 quarter final crossovers and made it a random selection. The idea is to avoid what Devo described earlier with teams jockying for position to avoid certain crossovers. International teams are not above throwing matches to ease their way through the final series.
Alexis said
Agreed Yankee Boy.
In the last Olympics (I think), Brasil lost the last match of their round but it didn’t affect them because they had already qualified as top of their pool. However it mattered a lot to the team they lost to and also the other teams in their pool who were affected by the surprise win. Think of the Australians beating Lithuania in the mens basketball the other day, which didn’t affect Lithuanians’ #1 finish but could well have affected Russia who finished behind Australia.
The difference between Basketball and Volleyball is that basketball don’t have Dr Ruben to come to the rescue. Acosta is one of the most vigilant people in the world people in the world when it comes to ‘match fixing’. I’m sure he would be able to sort out the tanking in AFL! He generally solves things in volleyball and beach volleyball by drawing lots, and by going on point percentage to distinguish finished (used to be set percentage but this was too easy to rig). By drawing lots for each of the 2nd and 3rd teams for the quarterfinal matchups it removes some of the ability to rig results in your favour – effectively ‘pick’ your quarterfinal opponent. And with indoor volleyball where the two pools at the Olympics are usually grossly uneven, this can help a lot.
Personally I have no problem with a team doing this. The only teams who can make these choices have earned the right to be in that position by beating other teams. Yes, it is tough on anyone who misses out on Quarters, or gets a tough matchup, but that’s always going to happen.
Anyway – as Devo said, I’m sure Mark will clarify things (and probably correct me) when he wakes up.
markleb said
I’m awake, not watching Bulgaria-Russia despite checking about 100 online TV broadcasts. But that’s another story…
In the last match of the first round in Athens, there was a suggestion that Brazil (coached my Bernardinho) deliberately lost (as distinct from resting some players) their last match against the USA to manipulate the quarter final matchups. You can read the match description (especially the last line) here http://www.fivb.org/EN/volleyball/competitions/olympics/2004/men/Press/Match030.asp and the press conference here http://www.fivb.org/EN/volleyball/competitions/olympics/2004/men/Press/Conf030.asp . Ironically the team that benefitted most from this was USA who consequently had a much easier quarter final (Greece instead of Yugoslavia).
Alexis is correct in that Dr Ruben then flew to the rescue. The rules for separating ties was changed from set quotient to point quotient which is more difficult to manipulate. And for the Olympics the 2nd and 3rd teams are now drawn instead of automatically crossed over.
My point was that because of that Poland and Italy effectively had nothing to play for on the last day as there is no difference between the two positions. Italy just went through the motions and played their subs and while Poland played great, I am quietly confident they would have played differently if they had to win to secure a better position. So by fixing one ‘problem’ they inadvertently made the last day of competition mostly pointless (except for Russia, of course).
But anyway, German TV is playing the end of Bulgaria-Russia…
markleb said
Two matches played and I’m 1/2. In my defence, I’ll point out that I did write about Italy’s advantage in experience and that was the decider. It took Poland two sets to start playing when they did they were better. It was especially tough for the Polish opposite Wlazly who played an unbelievable game. They gave him every tough and important play and he made most of them, including a 115km/h serve at 15-15 in the 5th that could have given them the advantage except for a great save from Vermiglio. They just needed one other guy to make a few plays and it could have been different. But only Englishmen think sport should be fair…
devo said
I never thought that I would be cheering for a Polish team. But I was. A gutsy performance.
(Students think that the whole of life should be fair – continual disappointment does not make them any wiser!)
mark said
I hope everyone who could watched the Russia-USA semi final. It was a fantastic match that really had everything. There were fantastic individual performances from Priddy and Ball from the US and Mikhaylov and Volkov from Russia. There were ups and downs, blown leads, big fight backs, lots and lots of really wonderful play…
…and the decisive play?
A shanked service toss that led to a serve that barely crept over the net that led to a really tough pass and a bad position for the setter and a tough high ball for the opposite that was blocked. Game, set, match USA.
Effectively, countless thousands of hours of practice over years and years led to a moment where the decisive point was CREATED by an error…
devo said
I am about to check the recorder to see what was on last night. My fingers are crossed.
mark said
After the excitement of the first semi final (and the early rise?) the Italy-Brazil semi final barely held my attention. Giba managed to lead the team in points, kills and spikes into the net (with a new Olympic record), Dante was dragged, they made almost no points from high balls and still they could not manage to lose. In fairness to Italy, they have had horrendous luck with injury in this tournament and started to match with only four of the players (out of 7) that started the first match and lost another one (Mastrangelo, who recovered from a knee injury in time to sprain his ankle) during the 4th set.
So, Brazil-USA in the final. Less than one month ago the USA beat them easily in the semi finals of World League, IN Brazil. World League is not the Olympics, but it is also obvious this Brazilian team isn’t the same one that has dominated for the last 6 years. It will be very interesting…
And Russia-Italy will also be interesting. To see if Italy can field a team :)